Top Takeaways:
- The power system performed throughout an unprecedented cold snap, with enough supply available to meet extended peak demand conditions. Proactive communication and industry coordination drove strong results.
- Conservative operations and precautionary measures ensured that sufficient power generation would be available to cover the event and maintain reliability.
- The system relied heavily on dispatchable resources to keep the lights on, reflecting the need for a balanced resource mix.
Extreme weather events are a stark reminder that even the most robust systems remain vulnerable to severe conditions—a reality Mid-Atlantic grid operator PJM Interconnection knows well, operating across a region where all four seasons deliver unique challenges to the electric grid.
The most extreme periods of winter weather usually accompany record demand and load strains. Winter Storm Elliot proved that grid operators must work to improve the resiliency of the system and ensure households have power throughout the coldest period of the year. Other events across the U.S., such as Winter Storm Uri in 2021, still guide and inform operators’ planning and modernization, which are critical to preventing blackouts due to extreme weather events.
Because power outages can cost tens of billions of dollars in economic losses, including serious threats to public safety, ensuring the system is prepared is essential.
Managing Extreme Conditions in Real Time and Ensuring Reliability
Winter Storm Fern provided the latest test on how the system would perform, with an unprecedented stretch of cold weather that put the PJM system near or at peak demand for the longest stretch of time in its history. From January 23 to 27, PJM closely monitored system conditions as the cold intensified. Across the region, generation outages amounted to roughly 21 GW as of Jan. 26, about 16% of PJM’s demand, with another week of extreme temperatures approaching – underscoring the importance of having available, committed capacity ready to perform.
Given the potential impacts, PJM also implemented a Conservative Operations declaration throughout the event to ensure reliability, calling on advance commitments from generators to operate in case they are needed. In some cases, this resulted in additional compensation to generators known as “uplift payments” that help cover the cost of the energy provided when not accounted for by the standard market price. These payments typically are used to cover expenses like the cost of high spot gas prices generators must pay to get gas when they are called to run on short notice, and are often not a source of significant extra profit to generation owners.
While actual system demand was lower than PJM’s forecast due in part to slightly warmer temperatures and school closures that reduced energy use, the implementation of Conservative Operations was an important reliability measure to guard against and protect consumers from the significant costs and public safety hazards incurred by power outages. Similar commitments were required in ISO-NE and NYISO, where operators took steps to secure fuel supplies and maintain adequate reserves amid tight regional gas conditions.
At the same time, the U.S. Department of Energy leveraged its emergency Section 202(c) authority under the Federal Power Act, which is used during emergency circumstances by the Secretary of Energy. In this case, the high risk of increased demand combined with the threat of transmission issues compelled the Secretary of Energy to direct generators across PJM, NYISO, and Duke Energy’s service territory to run at full capacity to ensure demand could be met.
Spot price increases across the impacted regions reflected the historic nature, geographic scope, and duration of the event, which significantly increased demand throughout nearly the entire East Coast. As temperatures rose, spot prices in the Northeast and Midwest dropped significantly with reduced demand.n
A Coordinated Industry Response: By the Numbers
Despite the prolonged conditions, power generation was able to keep pace with demand throughout Winter Storm Fern. In its post-event analysis, PJM noted that generator performance surpassed expectations and presented few challenges, remaining at or below normal outage rates.
Instead, electric outages experienced by consumers across the country can largely be attributed to transmission and distribution infrastructure.
- The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) saw its transmission lines damaged, which resulted in roughly a dozen local power companies experiencing supply disruptions.
- Entergy, which serves Louisiana and parts of Texas and Louisiana, estimated at least 30 transmission lines, 860 poles, and 60 substations went out of service, which knocked out power for 171,000 customers.
Encouragingly, the response to Winter Storm Fern demonstrated grid coordination improvements made since Elliot and Uri in 2021 and 2022. Ahead of Fern, utilities mobilized more than 65,000 workers from 44 states to prepare for damage assessments and rapid restoration. By Jan. 29, power was already restored to roughly 750,000 customers affected by distribution-level outages.
PJM and Power Generators Have Been Proactively Upgrading to Prepare for Winter Weather
With each extreme weather event, vulnerabilities in grid are exposed and have offered opportunities to improve system resilience.
As of October 2025, new cold weather readiness standards developed by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) became effective. These mandatory standards required generators to implement freeze protection measures, identify cold-weather operational constraints, and submit corrective action plans where risks exist.
Beyond these requirements, PJM expanded hands-on preparation. For the 2025-2026 winter, PJM worked to double the number of winter preparedness site visits to 30 generator facilities. Additionally, generators were encouraged to self-schedule testing when temperatures were forecasted to fall below certain thresholds. PJM also conducted unannounced tests of dispatchable resources and PJM enhanced its cold weather operating limit data requests to better align with NERC standards. These measures show that winter reliability is becoming a core focus in operators’ planning priorities.
Learn more about how competitive power generators prepare for cold weather events.
Case Study: ERCOT Shows the Value of Weatherization
Elsewhere, ERCOT’s performance during Winter Storm Fern highlighted the impact of mandatory weatherization and operational reforms.
Prioritizing dispatchable generation combined with efforts to winterize generation and implement stronger performance incentives have allowed ERCOT’s system to adapt to prepare for scenarios like Winter Storm Uri. In ERCOT’s post-event report, the grid was reported to have no system-wide outages throughout the entirety of the weather event.
Dispatchable Resources Anchored Reliability Across Regions
While PJM’s experience during Winter Storm Fern drew significant attention, similar reliability dynamics played out across ISO-New England (ISO-NE) and the New York ISO (NYISO) during both Fern and the January 2026 cold snap. Across these regions, dispatchable resources—including natural gas, nuclear, coal, oil, and hydropower—provided the backbone of system reliability during extended periods of peak demand and fuel stress.
As temperatures fell and demand rose for multiple consecutive days, grid operators leaned on dispatchable generation capable of running for sustained periods and responding to real-time system needs.
Renewable resources also contributed meaningful energy during the events, particularly wind generation during certain hours. However, as is typical during prolonged winter reliability events, output from variable resources fluctuated with weather conditions. Maintaining grid stability required dispatchable units to ramp up when renewable output declined and to remain online through sustained peak periods.
Taken together, the performance across PJM, ISO-NE, and NYISO during Winter Storm Fern and the January 2026 cold snap reinforces a key lesson: a reliable grid depends on a balanced resource mix. Dispatchable resources remain essential for meeting extended peak demand and managing system risk during extreme weather, while renewable generation continues to play a growing and complementary role in supplying energy when conditions allow.
Markets Secure Reliability While Encouraging Efficiency
In traditionally regulated utility systems, reliability is ensured through integrated resource planning and cost-of-service regulation, where utilities recover the cost of maintaining sufficient dispatchable capacity directly from ratepayers. In contrast, competitive wholesale markets must use market-based tools—such as energy and capacity markets, reliability commitments, and emergency authorities—to incent and secure the same level of preparedness. Generators that clear capacity obligations are required to be available and perform when called upon, facing steep financial penalties if they fail to deliver during reliability events. These market-based performance requirements are designed to ensure resources are prepared to operate under extreme conditions, while continuing to discipline prices and guard against overspending.
Meeting Future Winter Demand Remains in Focus
Grid performance during Winter Storm Fern demonstrated real progress, but challenges remain to meet growing electricity demand driven by economic growth, data centers, and the rush to electrify the United States. There is a growing interdependence between the electric grid and the natural gas system, and EPSA has worked proactively with the natural gas supply and pipeline sectors to enhance coordination and identify solutions. Information sharing between the two sectors has improved remarkably since Uri and Elliot, and recent cold snaps have shown better coordination in practice.
However, more must be done to address mismatches in planning, regulation, and cost recovery, which continue to limit long-term resilience. Additionally, policymakers must address the permitting and siting processes across federal, state, and local jurisdictions to jumpstart development for an energy system fit for purpose in the 21st century.
